Manchester Derby Preview: Man City vs Man United.

The Manchester derby is upon us.

Tomorrow, the Etihad Stadium will be witness to a momentous clash. Pep Guardiola’s Manchester City, periodically faltering and struggling for consistency, are set to take on Ruben Amorim’s Manchester United, yet to claw their way out of a crisis that has plagued them since Sir Alex’s departure over a decade ago.

This is a fixture steeped in history - a rivalry unlike any other, where both sides will be spurred on by more than a century of antagonism. Both teams are on the lookout for a statement win to provide their fans with some certainty about where their club is headed. Tensions are high. Here is a detailed preview of what to expect from the Manchester derby.

Injury News and Predicted Lineup: Manchester City

City’s derby hopes are offset by a lengthy roster of players ruled out due to injury. Attacking marquee Omar Marmoush is set to miss the match after his withdrawal from the Egyptian national side due to a knee injury, while left back Rayan Aït-Nouri will also be sidelined for five weeks after suffering a knock to his ankle.

Further, fellow new signing Rayan Cherki is out due to a thigh injury, Mateo Kovačić remains unavailable following Achilles surgery, and John Stones is a doubt for the match after the Englishman picked up a muscle injury during the international break. Meanwhile, peripheral profiles like Kalvin Phillips and Marcus Bettinelli remain sidelined.

Appended to their list of confirmed injuries is City’s roster of players who have just recently returned to training and full match fitness after problems of their own: Abdukodir Khusanov, Rico Lewis, Phil Foden, Nico O’Reilly, Savinho and Joško Gvardiol. It is fair to say that, merely three matches into the season, the City squad is in dire straits.

Given their plight, here is my predicted lineup for City tomorrow:

The main talking point here is a prospective debut for Gianluigi Donnarumma: will Pep give him the nod to start in goal over James Trafford? Moreover, Nathan Aké and Nico O’Reilly are also options to start in defence over Khusanov and Gvardiol.

If this is the lineup that Pep chooses to deploy, I expect the regular 3-2-5 structure to be formed by City in possession, with Nunes overlapping on the right wing and Oscar Bobb inverting into the right half-space. Subsequently, Gvardiol will tuck in to form a back three in defence, and Bernardo will drop down to form a double pivot with Rodri in buildup.

This is more akin to the system that Pep deployed against Wolves and Tottenham than the setup versus Brighton, but it will better suit the profiles in this lineup, especially because Jeremy Doku prefers to maintain width on the left while Gvardiol performs better than Aït-Nouri in a back three.

Injury News and Predicted Lineup: Manchester United

United’s injury roster is considerably more concise than that of City, but the significance of their injured players is substantial. While Argentine centre back Lisandro Martínez has been sidelined with an ACL injury for the majority of this calendar year, the Red Devils have three recent additions to their injury list: Diogo Dalot, Mason Mount and Matheus Cunha.

The first of these three names is perhaps the least consequential, since Amorim has recently preferred Amad Diallo to Dalot at right wing back. However, Mount and Cunha have been regular starters, and both were forced off with injuries during United’s dramatic 3-2 win over Burnley two weekends ago. While no timeframe has been put on their return, Amorim has confirmed that they will miss tomorrow’s fixture.

Here is my predicted lineup for Manchester United tomorrow:

With their missing profiles in attack, I expect Amorim to try out Bruno in a more advanced role as an inverted winger, while youngster Kobbie Mainoo attains a chance to fight for his place in midfield.

Šeško has an opportunity to start for the first time in the PL, but Zirkzee’s presence in attack may complicate this setup, as he could take the place of Šeško or Bruno. Either way, I do not anticipate a change in Amorim’s tactical setup, which is quite similar to United’s XI on paper, with the wing backs playing high and wide to stretch City's backline as well as the expanse of the pitch.

At times, Bruno may drop into midfield to form a trio in the centre of the park. The more intricate tactical observations will come during United’s buildup play from goal kicks, when Amorim instructs de Ligt to advance to form a double pivot with Casemiro while the LCM (plausibly Mainoo) advances to form a diamond structure in central attack. While this means that United have numerical superiority in their own third, it does imply that they will be dependent on long balls, cross-field switches, and one-on-ones in the final third and will often have to bypass their midfield entirely in buildup. Therefore, it is interesting to see how many players City commit to their press and how many they instruct to mark United’s receivers further up the pitch.

On the Lookout: Manchester City’s Set Pieces

Despite the arrival of Senne Lammens from Royal Antwerp, Ruben Amorim confirmed that Altay Bayındır will continue as United’s first-choice goalkeeper for the derby on Sunday. With this news, City is presented with an aperitive attacking opportunity: set pieces.

While Bayındır is up to the mark when it comes to distribution and shot-stopping, his balance in the box is questionable. A recurring motif so far this campaign has been United’s vulnerability to set pieces, with Bayındır repeatedly finding himself stranded on the floor after losing a physical battle to a shielding opposition player or losing his balance while coming out to claim the ball.

Pep and Co. can take advantage of this by instructing a physical player like Haaland to shield Bayındır and ensuring that all free kicks and corners are delivered long into the box for the likes of Rodri, Gvardiol, and Dias to attack the header. Set pieces could prove to be the differentiating factor at the Etihad.

Manchester United: Playing on the Counter

While I expect Amorim’s side to challenge for possession tomorrow, it is true that City is most vulnerable on the counterattack, a theme that we have observed time and again over the past decade for Pep Guardiola’s side. Since Pep likes utilising a back three when in possession and there is always an overlapping or inverting movement from at least one of his fullbacks, United could threaten City’s backline by stretching the width of the pitch with their wing backs whilst simultaneously overloading central areas with runners.

Attacking in numbers with electrifying pace is exactly what resulted in Brighton’s 2-1 victory over City last matchday, and United could look to exploit this same weakness. Especially with Šeško’s presence in the box, crosses from Dorgu and Amad could prove dangerous weapons for Amorim’s side.

Manchester United: Pressing Dynamics

Donnarumma and Trafford are both a world apart from Ederson when it comes to composure on the ball, so a high press from United’s attack may pay dividends, just as it did for Tottenham at the Etihad a few weeks ago. However, Mason Mount, who usually leads the line off the ball for United, is sidelined with injury, so the intensity of their pressure may be affected. Similarly, Matheus Cunha’s curved runs while pressing will be amiss, and Benjamin Šeško’s work rate will unequivocally be put to the test.

At the same time, United will not want to leave too much space in behind their midfield and defence for Haaland to drop and receive a long ball before unleashing the likes of Doku, Bobb and Reijnders with a through ball into the channel, which has the potential to result in a fast-paced transitional chance for the Cityzens.

More than Mere Strategy

The truth is that tomorrow, tactical intricacies will be thrown out of the window. This is not a match; this is a derby - a city divided into City and United. Immersed into the incandescent atmosphere that will undoubtedly engulf the Etihad Stadium, the psychological factors will play a salient role: mentality, calmness, desire to win.

For ninety minutes plus Fergie time, the noisy neighbours will look to stake their claim on Manchester. Embrace the chaos, enjoy the football, live the pandemonium.

Click here to check out Dhruv's Corner for more articles covering tactical, statistical, economic and political aspects of world football!