What Antoine Semenyo Will Bring to Manchester City: Statistical Analysis

As fixture congestion intensifies across leagues and cup competitions, clubs are increasingly turning to the winter transfer market for reinforcements. Manchester City is no exception, dominating the headlines with the imminent arrival of Bournemouth winger Antoine Semenyo.

The 26-year-old Ghanaian winger has established himself as a formidable force on the flank for Bournemouth in recent seasons. Now, with City emerging victorious in the race for his signature ahead of the likes of United, Liverpool, Tottenham, and Chelsea, attention turns to the key question: what exactly does Antoine Semenyo add to Pep Guardiola’s side?

Goalscoring Output

Semenyo’s goalscoring output sets him apart from other wingers. The Ghanaian’s breakout campaign two seasons ago saw him score eight goals in the league as Bournemouth racked up their highest ever EPL points tally (48). Last season, Semenyo built upon this figure, scoring eleven league goals as Bournemouth once again outperformed themselves with 56 points.

This campaign, Semenyo has continued producing outstanding offensive output, with 10 league goals in 20 appearances. In fact, this ratio of 0.50 goals p90 (per 90 minutes) exceeds his expected goals (xG) tally of 0.33 p90, showcasing that he converts low-probability chances as well, a testament to his high-quality finishing. While this positive xG differential is often an indicator of unsustainable overperformance, Semenyo has shown that he is capable of maintaining these high standards over multiple seasons.

This goalscoring prowess unequivocally stems from his courage to take long shots. His average shot distance is 17.30 yards across all competitions, delineating that he doesn’t need chances laid out on a platter in the six-yard box to score goals.

When it comes to his fit at Manchester City, this attacking output is particularly potent. “The years we were successful, not just the strikers [were scoring], especially the wingers, attacking midfielders. We need that,” were the words that echoed around the press conference room last month when Pep Guardiola expressed his desire to reduce the proportion of City chances falling to Erling Haaland. While Foden and Reijnders have stepped up recently to increase their league goal tallies to seven and five respectively, City’s wingers lag behind in this regard.

Despite being impeded by injuries, the numbers are worrying: Cherki has scored two league goals this season, Doku has converted one, and the likes of Bobb, Savinho, and Bernardo are yet to open their accounts. With his attacking output, Semenyo could instantaneously solve this problem and relieve some of the pressure on Haaland, adding more dimensions to a lethal City attack.

As seen in the radar chart below (made on DataMB), he contributes considerably more npxG + xA (non-penalty expected goals plus expected assists) and NPG (non-penalty goals) than Oscar Bobb, the player that he will most likely replace at City, given that the youngster has struggled with injury problems and is actively linked with several suitors.

Unpredictability and Two-Footedness

“A lot of people think I’m left-footed, but I’m right-footed. It makes it tougher for them. If they think I’m left-footed, I will go on the right side, and if they think I’m right-footed, I will go on the left.”

This underscores one of the most differentiating aspects of Semenyo’s play: the versatility to perform equally well on both flanks. He has regularly been utilised on either side of an attacking front three, both for Bournemouth and for the Ghana national team.

However, the difference is not merely in the starting position. Whichever side Semenyo is deployed on, his playstyle includes the effectual usage of both feet to sow indecision in defenders’ minds. This means that at any point of time, his marker does not know whether Semenyo will race to the byline on the outside or cut inwards and shoot.

When Bournemouth fought their way to a 2-2 draw against Maresca’s Chelsea a year ago, Semenyo was on the scoresheet with a thunderbolt of a shot, where he cut the ball wide onto his left foot before smashing it into the near post. In his last game for Bournemouth earlier this week, it was a precise right footed finish into the far corner from the edge of the box in the 95th minute that secured the Cherries a dramatic 3-2 triumph against Spurs. Semenyo’s unpredictability, combined with his high shot volume, will add a layer of multidimensionality to City’s attack.

Explosiveness and Ball Carrying

The eye test sheds light on one salient aspect of Semenyo’s play: his directness and explosiveness in attack. While this is majorly a result of Andoni Iraola’s tactical setup at Bournemouth, which demands high intensity and searing verticality, Semenyo truly flourishes in systems that give him the time to take on defenders in one-on-one situations.

Semenyo does not attempt as many carries p90 as wingers like Doku, with his quantity of carries per game lying in the 28th percentile. However, when he does take on his marker, his success rate is remarkably high (51% last season). The statistics also show that his take-ons are, more often than not, either SCAs (shot-creating actions, 86th percentile) or GCAs (goal-creating actions, 85th percentile)—numbers that will only increase at City, given that his new colleagues include the likes of Phil Foden and Erling Haaland. Moreover, he leads Bournemouth’s statistics for the average length of his ball carries (13.5 metres).

Defensive Strengths

Defensively, Semenyo is arguably one of the most effective forwards in the league, making him the perfect fit for Iraola’s incessantly high-pressure side. He wins possession approximately five times every game on average, which is outstanding for a forward whose primary focus is to convert chances. Out of possession, he constitutes a huge value-add to City’s pressing system, far from the mold of a luxury attacker who shirks defensive responsibilities.

Last season, no Premier League forward blocked more passes per game than Semenyo, whose propensity to press from the blind side of opposition players often catches them off guard in possession, resulting in a high turnover for Bournemouth in a dangerous area of the pitch. Further, he is adept at anticipating the direction of a pass before it is played, enabling him to intercept and cut off passing lanes, thus suffocating opposition buildup play. The table below, taken from Football Reference, delineates Semenyo’s adroitness at defending from the front (percentiles compared to other players in Europe’s big five leagues, the UCL, and the UEL):

A Change in City’s Pressing Structure

Semenyo’s commendable workrate could present an enticing opportunity for Pep Guardiola to tweak his tactical structure off the ball. At the moment, City switch to a 4-4-2 out of possession, with one of their attacking players advancing to lead the press alongside Haaland. In their Champions League fixture against Real Madrid, it was Cherki who often advanced from RW to RS to perform this role, with Bernardo Silva sliding across to the right side of midfield to cover for him and mark Madrid left back Álvaro Carreras:

However, this role does not suit Cherki’s skillset. While the Frenchman’s mesmerising dribbling ability and consistent chance creation provide a much-needed impetus to City’s attack, his defensive contribution has room for improvement:

With the impending arrival of Semenyo, however, this problem could be resolved. Bournemouth is the second most intense pressing side in the EPL. In the radar chart below (made on DataMB), the playing styles of three teams have been compared: Bournemouth this season (blue), Manchester City this season (pink), and Manchester City in the last season they won the league i.e. 2023/24 (green).

When we focus on the pressing metric, we see that pink (City this year) falls short of green (City two seasons ago). Presumably, Pep Guardiola wants to return to the level his side were at that year. Bournemouth (blue), meanwhile, press more intensely than both City sides, and this is largely due to Antoine Semenyo, who, following the departure of Dominic Solanke to Spurs two years ago, has taken over the role of pressing trigger at the Vitality Stadium.

This shift is far more significant than it appears. Solanke played as Bournemouth’s striker and has since been replaced by Evanilson in attack. However, rather than choosing the Brazilian to lead the line off the ball, Iraola has chosen to completely alter his pressing structure in order to position Semenyo as their pressing trigger, despite the fact that he plays at left wing and not at striker.

Semenyo’s dogged defensive workrate could be utilised in a similar way by Guardiola as well. With the Ghanaian potentially starting at right wing, Cherki would have the freedom to be deployed in a more central position in attacking midfield. As a result, Semenyo would be the one joining Haaland to lead the press, while Cherki would slide across to RM out of possession. In this way, Guardiola would capitalise on Semenyo’s strengths, nullify Cherki’s weaknesses, and return City to the spirited pressing style that has characterised their success time and again over the past decade.

Weaknesses

Semenyo is not yet the complete package. Despite his finishing ability, the winger can be wasteful at times; last season, he scored merely four out of the fifteen big chances (per Opta) that fell to him in the league. Even amidst his thunderous form this campaign, he did go on an eight-game goalless streak, which was a cause of concern for multifarious Bournemouth fans. While such dry spells did not impact his talismanic status at Bournemouth, they could possibly derail a spot in the starting eleven for City, where competition for places is immense.

Moreover, City’s patient, pragmatic build-up play and control of possession could come as something of a culture shock to Semenyo, who is in the 27st percentile for passes completed p90 and the 21st percentile for passes into the final third p90. As a qualifier, these statistics provide more insight into Bournemouth’s tactics than Semenyo’s abilities, as Iraola’s side keeps the ball for a measly average of 8.7 seconds per sequence of possession, with an average of 3.3 passes in this timeframe. However, they indicate that Semenyo could, perhaps, struggle in tight spaces, an area in which Pep usually demands his players to excel.

Further, Semenyo falls short on the playmaking side, with his 0.12 expected assists p90 falling in the 12th percentile for wingers across Europe. He is certainly the least creative of City’s options on the flank, differentiating himself more for his goalscoring output and defensive workrate.

The Tactical Fit

In recent months, we have observed Pep transition from what was, at times, an excruciatingly slow buildup process to a more vertical and direct style of football. Key to this is the long ball linkage between Donnarumma and Haaland, which has created multifarious chances for the Cityzens.

Semenyo’s addition is testament to Pep’s desire to double down on this tactical option. With his imposing physical presence, the Ghanaian was Bournemouth’s target man for long balls, and his statistics in this regard are impressive; he is in the 97th percentile among wingers for aerial duels won p90. This quality, coupled with his adulatory hold-up play, makes Semenyo another prospective target for Donnarumma’s long balls, providing Haaland with the freedom to make bulldozing runs.

Semenyo is especially potent against low blocks, where his unpredictable dribbling ability and two-footedness enable him to create space that is often hard to come by. Further, he appears more adroit and composed when he has more space to operate. While immediate success in terms of linkup play should not be expected, his two-footedness should, in theory, create a plethora of passing angles, and Pep Guardiola is arguably the best coach to have when it comes to augmenting passing ability.

Semenyo has a low volume of crosses for a winger, with only 1.41 per game. However, when he does cross, he prefers curling inverted balls into the box instead of crossing from the byline, and this will suit Haaland’s propensity to drift to the back post during City attacks. Moreover, his cutbacks to the edge of the box are lethal and accurate and could benefit late box runners like Tijjani Reijnders.

Conclusion

Overall, City fans have reason to hope, but the expectation should not be one of immediate success. Even with Marmoush at the AFCON and injuries to Bobb and Savinho, Semenyo faces stiff competition on the flanks. The good news is that each of City’s winger options offers something different: Doku’s scintillating pace and dribbling, Cherki’s creativity and flair,

Bernardo’s experience and doggedness, and now, Semenyo’s eye for goal and defensive workrate.

For Semenyo, the move is high-risk, high-reward, with the peril that his prime years could be hampered by competition for game time. However, with City still vying for four competitions, there is no doubt that he will have the chance to prove himself.

Reading between the lines, City could be preparing for a post-Guardiola world, with the Spaniard’s contract expiring next year. In what is bound to be a rocky transition, a more direct style might suit the new coach better, and this notion has become increasingly popular among the management with the recent signings of Doku, Nunes, Marmoush, Reijnders, and now Semenyo.

In Guardiola’s words, “He's an extraordinary, extraordinary, extraordinary player. His energy, his confidence, his movement. Unbelievable. He doesn't stop running, he attacks space so well, and when he has the ball, you feel something will happen. He's improving every game. Players like him make this league special. Always hungry, always brave.”

It remains to be seen whether this spectacular form continues at City. If Semenyo hits the ground running, this move may just reignite the title race.

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